When is the next recession?

April 11, 2019

I know this seems like an odd thing to bring up, things are good after all. Builders are busy, banks are bursting, and Wall Street is more like Wall Mega-Highway. But how long can it last?

These things are cyclical and years of prosperity are often followed by years of recession. The question is when does it tip from one to the other and are you prepared for it?

The first thing to disrupt a good economy are whispers of worry. We start looking for cracks and wonder how deep they go and making a bigger deal of them than we should. Shallow cracks aren't concerning, every investment carries an element of risk to it. Prophets of doom appear, declaring the roads unsafe and complaining to the city. Everyone else continues on with their lives.

A pothole appears. It could mean a single weak spot in the asphalt or it could mean the whole section of road is about to see a lot more of them. Instead of taking alternate routes to prevent more holes from developing, many just carry on the same path every day assuming tomorrow will take care of itself. Others maybe start taking action, planning alternate routes or maybe getting a 4 wheel drive vehicle that could better handle some bumps.

Obliviousness

After repeated use, one crack turns into many and eventually the road becomes so hazardous that accidents happen, traffic is delayed, and everything comes to a stand-still. People tend to choose the quickest, cheapest path, opting to patch the potholes as they come up instead of preemptively replacing the road. Of course, the road eventually reaches a breaking point but the signs were there for a while.

This breakdown point is the beinning of the recession. We should know better, we've been down this road before and not that long ago. The road closes for repairs and side roads get bogged down with the added traffic. As a result, people who never even saw the crack or the pothole are caught up in the effects. The longer it takes to replace the road, the longer the recession drags on and the longer road to recovery we should expect.

Eventually the road is replaced but by now people have relocated or their alternate routes have become their permanent route. It takes time for traffic to resume as usual. Hopefully this time the road is built better than the one it replaced, allowing a longer time before it too must be replaced in the future. If the road had been replaced before it became unusable, traffic may have been rerouted for a short time and quickly resume normalcy.

Everything has a lifespan, we should use something until it's useful lifespan is completed and have a plan in place to transition to the replacement before it tips to being unusable. We shouldn't wait until it's too late to plan for the future. When the time to act is come, the time to prepare is past. Use the good times to get prepared for the slow times.

Insurance prices have been relatively stable over the last few years, now is a great time to check on your fallback plan. Avoid your personal or your business's recession by planning ahead. Insurance is a tool to keep your feet on the ground and your business open when the potholes rise to the surface.

Have you considered Cyber Security insurance, Professional Liability, Errors & Omissions, Employment Practices Liability, Fidelity or Dishonesty bonds?

Now is the time to put up in store and prepare for tomorrow. Give us a call or stop by! Blog Archive - Search Blog

Recent Articles Jan 22, 2026 Florida Homeowners Insurance: Smart Ways to Lower Your Premium Without Sacrificing Protection Sep 8, 2025 Has the 2022 Legislation on Insurance Reform Helped Florida Residents? Aug 4, 2025 Contractor Bonds Explained: How to Get Bonded and Land Lucrative Projects Jul 28, 2025 The Golf Cart Insurance Gap: What Rental Property Owners & Managers Need to Know Jul 11, 2025 Neighborhood engineering fighting against the devastating affects of flooding

<!--

//Specify the slider's width (in pixels)

////NO NEED TO EDIT BELOW THIS LINE////////////

Telephone icon with speech bubble.

Get A Quote

At Norton Insurance, securing your future is easy. Ready to protect what matters? Contact us for a quick quote and personalized insurance options!

Contact Norton Insurance

102 Beal Parkway Southwest, Fort Walton Beach, Florida 32548, United States

Person with shield icon featuring a checkmark.

Personal Insurance

From auto and homeowners to renters and umbrella policies, we help protect your family and property. Let’s find coverage that fits your life.

Buildings with coins, a shield, and a checkmark, suggesting financial security.

Commercial Insurance

We customize policies for your industry's risks, like general liability and workers' comp, ensuring you can run your business worry-free.

A black and white line-art icon of a factory with a large gear positioned above it.

Insurance by Industry

Every industry has unique risks. We match you with specialized coverage designed for your trade, keeping your operations protected.

Black telephone handset icon.

Kelly

i
Kelly is not a licensed insurance agent. Only licensed agents can provide quotes or coverage recommendations. Calls may be reviewed for quality and training purposes.

Speak to our virtual assistant Kelly 24/7

Microphone icon.

Microphone ready


Black check mark.

Start your custom insurance quote

Black check mark.

Instant answers to your insurance questions

Black check mark on a white background.

Schedule appointments or follow-ups

Share this article

Recent Posts

August 31, 2026
Workers’ Compensation in Florida: What Employers Need to Know This Year Workers’ compensation requirements in Florida are strict—and often misunderstood. Employers in Destin , Fort Walton Beach , and throughout Florida can face serious financial consequences if payroll and classifications are not reported accurately. One of the biggest pain points we see? Workers’ compensation audits and unexpected back premiums. Who Is Required to Carry Workers’ Compensation in Florida? Florida law generally requires workers’ compensation coverage for: Construction businesses with one or more employees Non-construction businesses with four or more employees Misclassifying employees, assuming subcontractors are exempt, or underestimating payroll can all lead to compliance issues. How Workers’ Comp Audits Really Work Most Florida workers’ compensation policies are auditable , meaning carriers review actual payroll at the end of the policy period. If payroll is: Underreported Misclassified Not updated as the business grows the result is often a large audit bill , sometimes months after the policy expires. Many employers are caught off guard by back premiums they didn’t budget for—especially after a strong growth year. Why Inaccurate Payroll Reporting Is So Costly Underreporting payroll doesn’t save money long-term. Instead, it often leads to: Unexpected audit balances Cash flow strain Policy non-renewals Increased scrutiny from carriers This is why we work proactively with our clients to track payroll changes throughout the year , not just at renewal. How We Help Employers Avoid Audit Surprises We regularly: Review estimated vs. actual payroll Monitor job classifications for accuracy Prepare clients for upcoming audits Advocate with carriers when discrepancies arise Our goal is to help employers avoid surprises by addressing issues before an audit triggers back premiums. Why Annual (and Mid-Year) Reviews Matter Florida businesses evolve quickly. If staffing, wages, or operations change mid-policy, coverage should change too. Bottom Line: Workers’ compensation audits are unavoidable—but large back premiums often are. Having an agency that tracks payroll changes, prepares for audits, and advocates for corrections helps Florida employers stay compliant while controlling costs.
August 31, 2026
Don't be fooled by these common misconceptions about Florida Insurance.
Wide view of a white-sand Gulf beach with turquoise water, sea-oat dunes, and coastal cottages in the distance
By Norton Insurance August 15, 2026
A local's guide to Emerald Coast insurance: home, auto, flood, and business coverage, town by town, from an independent agency serving the coast since 1982.